Premier League Ramble – 2017/18 Round 34

Premier League Ramble – 2017/18 Round 34

Congratulations to Manchester City whose 1-3 win at Wembley, combined with United’s shock defeat at home to West Brom, won them their third Premier League title, proving my early season prediction wrong in the process. Despite the win at Old Trafford, West Brom’s chances of survival are still slim (at best) as they are at least 9 points behind Swansea – who have a game in hand – with an inferior goal difference. Andy Carroll’s late equaliser may have doomed Stoke to life in the Championship, while Southampton’s 2-0 start against Chelsea was ruined by 3 goals in 9 minutes and leaves Mark Hughes close to his first ever relegation as a player or a manager.

Congratulations also to Wolves, who are now guaranteed a place in the Premier League next season!


What’s next for the best?

City’s run to the title has been dominant this season! In 33 matches, they have only failed to take maximum points 5 times (2 losses and 3 draws) and they currently have a goal difference of +68, 25 higher than the next best goal difference (Liverpool). Pep Guardiola will have very little competition for Manager of the Season – I would argue only Sean Dyche can potentially beat him to this award – as he has made this team almost unbeatable in the toughest of the top domestic leagues. He has clearly worked hard on developing his players and it is helping players like Raheem Sterling begin to live up to their potential.

But the Sky Blues cannot rest on their laurels and will need to work hard to defend their title next year, especially if they plan to progress further in the Champions League.So what do they need to look at ahead of next season:

  • Plan B – As dangerous as City have been in attack this season, they will eventually come up against teams who set up well enough to stop the Sky Blues’ current tactics. For that reason I feel they need to look at finding another striker. Jesus and Aguero (if he stays) are both fantastic strikers but they have similar playing styles, I would argue that Guardiola needs to find a taller and more physical striker to give their attack an extra dimension and a more direct option. Imagine the fun De Bruyne and Sané would have crossing the ball in to a target man. The quality of the supporting players is such that it will not require a top name to fill this spot, as they will get the chances and just need to be able to finish them – just look at how Kelechi Iheanacho has struggled since leaving the Etihad. If they could get him, a player like Fernando Llorente would probably have more success in this team than he has had at Spurs this season.
  • Increased depth – If City want to defend their league title and win the Champions League next season then they need to improve their depth. They were heavilylinked with Riyad Mahrez in January and I think that he would be a great addition for them as he, Sané and Starling will give Guardiola great selection headaches and allow for greater rotation, while Phil Foden should also continue to get more minutes as he develops. Fernandinho is probably one of the most underrated players in the squad and I would recommend Guardiola try to find a capable understudy to ensure City do not struggle if he picks up a long-term injury, while the team could also do with improving their depth at fullback, as we saw this year that the quality wasn’t quite there behind Kyle Walker and Benjamin Mendy, who missed so much of the season he will almost feel like a new signing next season.
  • Settled defence – 
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    Is Pep set for the Manager of the Season award? – Image from Flickr – Pedro Haas

    Last week when discussing the importance of David de Gea to United’s season, I compared some of his key stats to the main keepers in the other Top 6 clubs. Despite playing the same number of games and Ederson having to make only half as many saves, United had still managed to keep more clean sheets in the league so far this season. City have a number of quality centre backs (Stones, Kompany, Laporte and Otamendi) yet they still concede more goals than they should. Injuries have not helped, but the form of these players has been up and down like a yo-yo. It will be difficult for City to keep scoring at such an impressive rate next season, so they need to make things safer at the back. They have the players, now they just need to perform.


Crime and punishment

2 challenges this weekend, both awful, but different punishments. Ben Davies put in a horrible high challenge on Vincent Kompany with his studs catching him not far below the knee. How he did not receive a red card I don’t know, I can only assume the officials had a bad angle as he only received a yellow. Even more ridiculous was the lack of punishment from Mike Dean when Marcos Alonso planted his studs in the top of Shane Long’s calf right under the referee’s nose. It was an unnecessary and horrible challenge, but luckily as Dean missed it Alonso will receive a retroactive punishment, unfortunately Davies will not receive any further punishment as the referee clearly saw the incident and acted on it during the match. To me, this is ridiculous.

This isn’t the first time this season that I have suggested introducing an idea from rugby, but I think that football could benefit from a citing system. In rugby, a player can be cited for an on-pitch incident regardless of whether the referee has seen and acted on the incident. This means that if an independent panel finds that the referee’s punishment has been too lenient – as with the yellow card to Davies – the player can still receive a fitting punishment for his actions. For such a professional sport, there is far too much of an opportunity for a poor refereeing decision to impact the league, not just that week but for the next couple of weeks! I can see already the arguments that football has managed fine without this for years and that it is taking away the authority of the referee, but nobody treats the referee with any respect or authority as it is (just look at the hordes of players around him every time he blows his whistle) and surely as fans of the sport we would rather see the right decisions being made and players receiving the punishments they deserve. Just imagine if Davies nets the winner against Brighton…


The race for Europe

Who would have thought all those months ago when Burnley started the season well that they would still be in with a shot of qualifying for the Europa League with just 5 games remaining. They had a poor spell towards the middle of the season but have recovered well and are back to winning ways, just 2 points behind Arsenal. Regardless of whether they do qualify, for a team with the smallest playing budget in the league, to be pushing for such a high league position – despite having lost Robbie Brady and Tom Heaton to injury early in the season –  is fantastic and I would argue Sean Dyche is the only person who can realistically compete with Guardiola for Manager of the Season honours.

They have been solid at the back all season and players like James Tarkowski and Nick Pope have deservedly received England call-ups during the season, but earlier in the season they did not necessarily look overly dangerous up front. Recently though, the decision to pair Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes has made them look much more dangerous up front. It reminds me of Stoke’s progression in the past from a defensively organised team under Tony Pulis to a team that could also attack well under Mark Hughes, but this has been done over the space of a season and with the same manager, which is very impressive.

The high league position will be huge for the Burnley budget and with such an impressive manager I think players will be interested in coming to Turf Moor next season. However I have faith that Dyche will be smart with his signings and continue to bring in players that complement the team. Could a return for Danny Ings or Charlie Austin be on the cards this summer? I wouldn’t bet against it.


17/4/18 – 23/4/18 predictions:

So the next week of football will be interesting for the table as some teams try to make up their game in hand while other teams end up playing twice. I have no idea how soon I will be able to write about any of these games (it will most likely not be until after the weekend), so rather than class it as a specific round of matches, I have decided to group all these matches together for my next set of predictions. Typical cup football getting in the way of league schedules, eh?

Brighton & Hove Albion v Tottenham Hotspur – Spurs win

AFC Bournemouth v Manchester United – United win

Burnley v Chelsea – Draw

Leicester City v Southampton – Leicester win

West Bromwich Albion v Liverpool – Liverpool win

Watford v Crystal Palace – Draw

Arsenal v West Ham United – Arsenal win

Stoke City v Burnley – Burnley win

Manchester City v Swansea City – Man City win

Everton v Newcastle United – Draw

Premier League Ramble – 2017/18 Round 23

Premier League Ramble – 2017/18 Round 23

Arsenal’s ‘Invincibles’ of 2003/4 can sleep soundly for another year knowing their record is safe. Manchester City finally came away from a game with no points following a thrilling 4-3 loss at Anfield on Sunday. This result cuts City’s lead over Manchester United (who beat Stoke 3-0) to 12 points, while Liverpool rise up to 3rd, level on points with Chelsea. A second straight loss for Burnley, this time a 1-0 defeat at Crystal Palace, sees them dropping back towards their mid-table rivals, while Arsenal’s 2-1 loss at Bournemouth sees them losing ground to the top 5.

The upset on Merseyside

What a result for Liverpool! Despite having lost Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona earlier in the month, there was no clear impact on their attacking quality as they came out 4-3 winners, courtesy of goals from Oxlade-Chamberlain, Firmino, Mané and Salah (obviously). When I was predicting the results at the end of my last article, I was tempted to pick Liverpool for the win due to how prolific their attack has been of late. Their defence may still need some improvement – 2 goals in the last 10 minutes made it squeaky bum time at the end) but as long as they can continue scoring more than their opposition they can beat anyone on their day.

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Liverpool are the first team to score 3+ goals in a match against Manchester City this season – From http://www.premierleague.com

Firmino and Salah are surely having the best season of their careers (Firmino already has more goals in any competition this season than in any other season), while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is looking better by the week as he gets more comfortable in the squad and scored a lovely goal to give the Reds an early lead. Adam Lallana has recently returned from injury and will continue to improve with more minutes. The one place Liverpool do need to look is at the back. Virgil van Dyke was missing for this game and there were mistakes from individuals, most notably for Leroy Sané’s goal, where Joe Gomez misjudged the flight of the ball to leave Sané in acres of space, then Loris Karius failed to save at his near post.

Liverpool are clearly improving as the season goes on and it’s clear where the money needs to be spent at the moment. We have just under half a month left, so it will be interesting to see if they make any more signings this season.

Taking the next step

Burnley may be having an impressive season (7th in the league with 34 points, behind only the big 6) but it could be going so much better. Injuries to Chris Wood and Robbie Brady have left Sean Dyche with limited attacking options and while they may have the 4th best defence in the league, they are also one of only 5 clubs to have not yet scored 20 league goals this season.

This is a team that are not currently able to win from a losing position and to take the next step and challenge for Europe, Sean Dyche needs to find a striker that can contribute 12-15 goals a season. The beauty of the Premier League is that anyone can beat anyone on the day, so if Burnley can start turning some of these draws and 1-0 losses into wins, they will be able to continue pushing for European football.

Bringing football into the 21st century

I know not everyone has been happy with the impact of the video assistant referee (VAR) in recent tests during cup games, but this weekend gave us 2 incidents that highlight exactly why VAR needs implementing sooner rather than later.

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Wrong decisions could prove crucial at the bottom come the end of the season – From http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport

While it can also be argued that Southampton threw away a 2 goal lead (again, not looking good for Pellegrino), the equaliser from Abdoulaye Doucouré should never have stood as on review it was clearly controlled at least in part by the hand. The 2-2 result leaves the Saints just a point above the relegation zone, so those 2 points they have been denied could prove crucial in their fight for survival.

Swansea will also feel aggrieved that they had to settle for a 1-1 draw at Newcastle considering they should have had a penalty in the first half when Mohamed Diame clearly (although apparently not to the ref) raised his arm to block a goalbound shot. Not only should this have been a penalty, but this would have also left the Magpies playing the rest of the game a man down and more than likely resulted in Swansea taking the full 3 points. The extra 2 points would still leave them bottom of the table, but within a win of escaping the bottom 3.

2 incidents this weekend, plenty of other throughout the season. It may interrupt the flow of the game slightly, but surely it is more important that the matches are not affected by wrong decisions.

Round 24 predictions:

Brighton & Hove Albion v Chelsea – Chelsea win

Arsenal v Crystal Palace – Arsenal win

Burnley v Manchester United – United win

Everton v West Bromwich Albion – Everton win

Leicester City v Watford – Leicester win

Stoke City v Huddersfield Town – Draw

West Ham United v AFC Bournemouth – West Ham win

Manchester City v Newcastle United – City win

Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur – Spurs win

Swansea City v Liverpool – Liverpool win

Premier League Ramble – 2017/18 Round 12

Premier League Ramble – 2017/18 Round 12

There were goals galore in this week of the Premier League, with every game having at least 2 goals. Manchester City’s 0-2 win at Leicester keeps them 8 points clear at the top of the table and chasing the accomplishments of the ‘Invincibles’ of Arsenal’s 2003/4 season. Elsewhere, Chelsea’s 0-4 demolition of West Brom proved the end of Tony Pulis’ time in charge whilst also leapfrogging them above Spurs, who lost the North London Derby 2-0 at the Emirates, whilst Liverpool and Burnley made it 3 wins in a row with victories over Southampton and Swansea respectively. And the less said about West Ham, the better!

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Round 12’s results – From http://www.premierleague.com

Diving into the history books

So Oumar Niasse has become the first player in the Premier League to be charged by the FA for “successful deception of a match official” following his dive in the 6th minute of their 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace, which resulted in a penalty scored by Leighton Baines. While it is great to see retroactive punishment being used for dives, which will hopefully lead to more honest play, I wonder if this was deserving of its place in history.

Phil Neville and Alan Shearer were both certain that this was a dive, but there was clearly contact between Niasse and Scott Dann – even if Niasse’s fall was worthy of an Oscar! Discussing this with a colleague at work who plays football regularly for a local club, he echoed my thoughts that strikers are taught to go down under contact, especially in the box. It is one thing to fall theatrically following minimal contact, it is another thing entirely to throw yourself to the floor without being touched. It is still technically a dive, but he has been impeded at least marginally.

Personally I would like to see both incidents like this and actual dives both outlawed, but I think that when there is even slight contact, it can be questionable as to whether this is a dive or a foul, or quite possibly both! I can pretty much guarantee there will be a similar incident each week in the league, if any of them lead to penalties it will be interesting to see if they all result in charges, as the FA have set a precedent now. It will be interesting to see the result of this charge and what impact it has moving forward.

Welcome returns

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“Lions don’t recover like humans” – Picture from Flickr – l3o_

United’s 4-1 victory over Newcastle on Saturday saw the return from injury of 2 fan favourites for the Red Devils. Paul Pogba made his first start after 9 weeks out while Zlatan Ibrahimovic came off the bench for his first appearance since mid-April following a serious knee injury. While Zlatan’s late cameo had a limited impact on the game, he looked sharp and will be putting the rest of the league on warning, but Pogba’s return may have won United the game.

I have never been completely sold on Pogba when I have watched him in the past, but seeing the way United’s title challenge has faltered during his spell out and the way they looked back to their best on Saturday has helped me see the quality that the Frenchman possesses. His play on the edge of the box to make the space to provide the cross for Anthony Martial’s equaliser was so assured for someone who has been out for 2 months, and he had a clear desire to be involved, leading to him making a great run from halfway as United broke downfield and being in the perfect position to receive Marcus Rashford’s cushioned header to score United’s third goal of the game. Romelu Lukaku also seemed to benefit from Pogba’s return and got on the score sheet in the league for the first time since the end of September.

With Pogba & Ibrahimovic’s returns and Lukaku starting to find the net again, United may be able to get back to challenging for the title. They now just need City to drop 8 points somewhere along the line…

Riding high

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How the Premier League table looks after 12 rounds – From http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport

It’s gone somewhat under the radar in my posts this season, but how well are Burnley doing?! Sean Dyche’s men have quietly gone about their business this season and find themselves not just in the top half of the table, but behind only the Big 6. Not just that, but they’re currently pushing for Europe as they are only behind Arsenal and Liverpool due to goal difference and trail Spurs by 1 point and Chelsea by 3!

Burnley under Dyche have always been known as a team with a well-organised defence, and that is no different this year as their 9 goals conceded (level with Spurs) puts them behind only Manchester City (7) and United (6). Not bad when you consider Tom Heaton’s injury means they have played most of the season with the previously unknown Nick Pope in goal! But unlike other defensively-oriented teams like those managed by Tony Pulis, Burnley are also playing attractive football, their 12 goals putting them firmly in the middle of the table.

I think that their defence may be good enough to get the odd point against the teams currently above them, but if they want to take the next step they probably need to get another striker who can get 15-20 goals a season. Former Claret Danny Ings has struggled to break into the Liverpool squad since he recovered from injury. I’m sure both parties would benefit from him returning on loan to Turf Moor in January. His goals could push Burnley to the next level while regular football could reignite his Premier League and International career.

 

Week 13 predictions:

West Ham United v Leicester City – Leicester win

Crystal Palace v Stoke City – Stoke win

Manchester United v Brighton & Hove Albion – United win

Newcastle United v Watford – Draw

Swansea City v AFC Bournemouth – Bournemouth win

Tottenham Hotspur v West Bromwich Albion – Spurs win

Liverpool v Chelsea – Draw

Southampton v Everton – Draw

Burnley v Arsenal – Arsenal win

Huddersfield Town v Manchester City – City win