Autumn Nations Cup 2020: Ireland v Wales

The newest tournament on the international rugby calendar got underway this evening in Dublin as Ireland and Wales kicked off the Autumn Nations Cup in Dublin.

After a confrontational opening quarter in which Johnny Sexton and Leigh Halfpenny each scored a penalty, Ireland found themselves on the Welsh try line and Quinn Roux – a late call-up to the starting line-up following Iain Henderson’s illness – managed to power himself the last few inches for the opening try, which was converted by Sexton. Sexton added another penalty but this was one of Sexton’s last impacts on the game as he was removed with a hamstring injury, and a change in the tides at the scrum soon saw Wales get back within a try through the boot of Leigh Halfpenny. The Irish dominance in open play continued however, and replacement fly half Billy burns soon opened his account on his debut with a penalty to bring the score to 16-6, with Andrew Porter just failing to dot down the ball over the line right before the break after issues at the Welsh lineout.

The Welsh had been very much the second team in the first half but they started slightly more positively after the break, with a Leigh Halfpenny penalty from halfway dropping just short, before another bisected the posts. That was as good as things got for Wales as Gareth Davies found his box kick charged down by Caelan Doris, who kept the ball in play for Cian Healy, who was held up over the line by Taulupe Faletau, but the Irish domination continued and with Wales creating very little, Billy Burns pulled the Irish away with another penalty and Conor Murray added 2 of his own after Burns was forced off the pitch. With the game secured and the clock ticking down, a strong Irish scrum in the 22 allowed Caelan Doris to pick off the base and offload to James Lowe, who had the strength to cross the line to cap off his international debut with a try, coverted by Murray for a final score of 32-9.

Lowe risk, high reward

James Lowe is a player who I have had my eye on for years, dating back to his time with the Chiefs in New Zealand. With his scoring record and blend of pace and power, I’ve always rated him and now that he has completed his residency period in Ireland, he has been able to show just what he can do on the international scene.

While his defence and covering of kicks could be improved, what he brings is good pace, but incredible power. If you give him half a gap he will punch through it and if you don’t get him down, he will continue to power himself on as long as he can, which he did to great effect in this game, needing multiple tacklers to bring him down and still only after making positive metres. He was arguably one of the most dangerous men on the pitch in this game and it was only right that he finished the game with a try, taking the ball from Caelan Doris as he came off the scrum and forcing his way over the line to embarrass the Welsh defence on first phase ball.

I suggested recently that the trio of Lowe, Conway and Keenan could prove effective for Ireland, with Keenan and Conway being elusive runners and more technical players, and Lowe providing the extra physical edge. With their success in this game despite a late call-up for Conway, the trio should be given the time to build a relationship together as a unit and kept the same through the coming weeks.

(Loose)Head-scratcher

I can’t help feel for Rhys Carré in this game. The Cardiff Blues loosehead suffered a torrid time in the opening quarter, being dominated at the scrum by Andrew Porter. Credit to the youngster though, he did not let his head drop despite a number of early penalties and in fact managed to fight back at the scrum despite the bad early look he gave referee Mathieu Reynal, and in fact managed to earn party and even a couple of penalties. And then suddenly he was yanked from the pitch just seconds before the end of the half to be replaced by the “better scrummager” Wyn Jones.

Now I could have understood this replacement in the opening 20 minutes as Carré’s early struggles in the scrum will paint a negative impression in the officials’ minds, but when the coaches chose to keep him on and he fought back in the scrum, he earned the chance to play the full starting role and there was absolutely no need to take him off with a scrum 5m from the try line with just seconds left in the half.

And did it really improve the game? Wyn Jones may have had some success, but the real improvement in the Welsh scrum didn’t come until Samson Lee came on at tighthead, while Wyn Jones ended up conceding the same amount of penalties as Carré.

At just 22 years old, Carré is still some years off of his prime. Hopefully getting the early shepherd’s crook here doesn’t negatively affect his development.

Super Rugby AU: Rebels v Brumbies

Round 6 sees us enter the back half of Super Rugby AU’s regular season and that means it’s time to kick off the reverse fixtures. First up was a trip to Leichhardt Oval as the Melbourne Rebels took on the unbeaten Brumbies.

Though neither team would usually consider Leichhardt Oval home, it was a home away from home for the deposed Rebels and they got off to a near-perfect start with Reece Hodge crossing in the corner just 3 minutes in. Things soon got worse for the Brumbies as their next attack came to a costly end as an attempted grubber through the Rebels’s defence rebounded behind the attacking Brumbies, Marika Koroibete kicked the loose ball on and when Andy Muirhead missed trying to fall on the ball 5 metres from his line, Koroibete collected and offloaded to the onrushing Brad Wilkin, who was not being stopped from that range. The Brumbies quickly hit back as a catch and drive 10m out from the Rebels’ line setup Joe Powell to score, but this was quickly cancelled out as Reece Hodge scored again, beating Tom Banks to a grubber through. Matt To’omua added a penalty and Jordan Uelese powered over from short range to give the Rebels a 27-7 lead at the halfway mark.

While 27 point was the most the Rebels had scored away from Melbourne in their Super Rugby history, the second half was far from high scoring. To’omua added a penalty to extend the lead, before a combination of substitutions, handling errors and penalties against the attacking team saw the rest of the half go scoreless until the final minute, when Will Miller crossed from close range to give the final score a slightly more respectable look at 30-12.

Out of sorts

If someone watched this game with no knowledge of how the previous 5 rounds had gone, there is no way they would think that the Brumbies were the unbeaten side. They really didn’t turn up for this match.

Right from the opening whistle they were on the back foot, leading to Reece Hodge’s try on just 3 minutes. Their attacks often seemed half-hearted, while in defence, they were sluggish to react to the Rebels and found themselves pushed back by the Rebels’ carriers and made to chase the ball all game long as Andrew Deegan controlled the game and continually pinned them back deep in their own territory.

Their heads dropped and with that the game got even further away from them, as their attacks continued to lack the intensity of recent weeks, seeing the team pushed back in contact and ending lots of attacks with turnovers, penalties or handling errors.

This loss really opens up the table with the 1ˢᵗ place finisher getting an automatic spot in the final and 2ⁿᵈ getting home advantage against 3ʳᵈ in the playoff for the other spot in the final. The Brumbies need to recover quickly or this could be costly.

Out of position

A few weeks ago, I suggested that the replacements bench should be expanded so that players going off injured and a team not having a suitable replacement on the bench doesn’t end up negatively impacting the game. Well, this match had me doubling down n this opinion.

As if a raft of substitutions wasn’t already going to impact the Rebels’ consistency in the second half, they lost replacement back row Rob Leota to injury just 10 minutes after he came onto the pitch. With replacement lock Mike Stolberg already on, it left the Rebels turning to centre Bill Meakes to fill in at flanker. While Meakes did a good job and didn’t look out of place on the side of the scrum, he’s still playing in a position that he is wholly unprepared for and having a centre in the back row seriously hampers the pack’s options at the lineout and the moves that can be ran off a scrum.

To make matters even worse, Meakes’ appearance at flanker meant that he wasn’t available to come on 5 minutes later when Reece Hodge came off, leading to Frank Lomani having to once again fill in on the wing. As I said before, Lomani is a great player and dangerous runner, but he is not a winger and in a closer match, these 2 players being out of position could prove costly.

If World Rugby is determined to fiddle with the game, then increasing the options on the bench will be much more beneficial than a 50/22 kick or these new goal-line drop-outs.

Countermeasures

When the Brumbies get a lineout within 10 metres of the opponents’ line, it’s often a fair assumption that they will go for the catch and drive and end up with a try. Well the Rebels managed to stop this in the first half with the easiest of strategies: putting a man in the air. Folau Fainga’a underthrew the lineout and it was an easy steal for Matt Philip.

This got me thinking: why not always get a man competing in the air at Brumbies lineouts within your 22? The Brumbies maul is nigh-unstoppable, but the lineout is shaky. If you compete in the air and miss it, the result will probably be no different that if you had stayed on the ground. However, putting a man in the air – even if it is just at the front every time – adds extra pressure on the hooker. Fainga’a and Connal McInerney already struggle enough to hit double-top at lineouts, and with any extra pressure, the chances of an overthrow/underthrow/not straight increases.

And with the lineout being such an issue for the Brumbies, why limit that pressure to inside your own 22? Get a man in the air at the majority of lineouts and the job of the Brumbies hookers becomes so much harder.

Bigger Bench? Big Thumbs Up!

The Northern Hemisphere club season may not be fully over yet (the Top 14 playoffs continue until mid-June) but eyes are already turning to international rugby with the beginning of the World Rugby U20s Championship today.

With my focus having been on the Premiership and Pro14 and already looking ahead to the World Cup, I must admit that the U20s fixtures yesterday caught me unprepared, so I was very surprised when I saw the matchday squads consist of all 28 players in the squad.

This is a change being trialled in the tournament. The number of possible substitutions remains at 3 in the front row and then 5 more, but the usual 8-man bench is extended to 13.

Personally, I absolutely love this trial and hope that it comes into practice through more tournaments in the next couple of years. With the way that the game has evolved in terms of player safety, substitutions have become more important than ever, so to have 4/8 positions on the bench filled by specialists (2 props, hooker, scrum half) is extremely limiting. Expanding the bench to 13 players means that you can have cover for every position (maybe just 1 winger and 2 back rows) which allows for much better reactions to injuries and also more tactical flexibility, without putting teams with less depth at too much of a greater disadvantage by still only allowing 8 total replacements.

While it’s still early days, I’m really excited by this trial and can’t wait to see how things go moving forwards.

Eyes On: England v Scotland – 6 Nations 2019

With Wales having already secured the Six Nations title with their victory over Ireland, the tournament finale between England and Scotland was a dead rubber except for the rivalry between the 2 countries. England came out the blocks quickly with Jack Nowell crossing in the 2^nd minute and they added 3 more tries by the half hour mark through Tom Curry, Joe Launchbury and Jonny May before Stuart McInally scored what appeared to be a consolation try to make the halftime score 31-7. The game was flipped on its head after the break though as Scotland scored tries through Darcy Graham, Magnus Bradbury, Finn Russell and Sam Johnson put Scotland ahead, only for George Ford’s converted try on the last play of the game to level the scores at 38-38 and end the game as the highest scoring draw in international rugby history.

Momentum swings

Maybe England hadn’t heard the result of the Wales match by the time they kicked off as they came out with such a fierce determination to rack up the score. Their attacks were clinical and they used their options in the back line to manipulate the Scottish defence in ways that made it easy for them to finish their tries. Scotland weren’t necessarily playing bad rugby, but they couldn’t get much going in attack that was dangerous enough to trouble England – who were flying up in defence and putting them under heavy pressure – and they struggled defensively to deal with all the attacking options their opponents had.

McInally’s try from a charged down kick and half time coming just a few minutes later brought England’s momentum to a complete half and gave the Scottish time to recover and reset. When the second half started, suddenly Scotland were cutting out the individual errors and starting to make some ground against an England defence that was no longer getting in their faces as fast. England were still making big metres in attack, but the accuracy of the first half was gone and they were beginning to make individual handling errors that would prove costly come the final whistle.

This was an extreme but perfect example of just how easy it is for a switch in momentum to completely change a game. Scotland will be hoping that they don’t find themselves in this position again, but given their injury issues this tournament it is a testament to the character of their team that they were able to turn the game around after such an awful opening half hour.

Finishers and Game Changers

Eddie Jones may call them “Finishers”, Harlequins may call them “Game Changers”. Yep, I’m on about substitutes. No matter what you call them, they’re all doing the same jobs. But perhaps Jones’ name for them has a bit more meaning that it originally appears.

I suggested after the Wales loss that Eddie Jones did not trust his replacements to change the game and that seemed to be the case here as well. As momentum first started to turn in Scotland’s favour and with Ellis Genge having already come on early for the injure Ben Moon, the only changes Jones made were to replace Mark Wilson and Kyle Sinckler (who had both been looking pretty impressive) and replacing them with Brad Shields and Dan Cole, who failed to have as much of an impact on the game. In the backs, it was only in the final 10 minutes that Jones began to make changes despite the Scottish having taken complete control well before this.

In contrast, the moment Scotland scored a couple of quick tries, Gregor Townsend recognised the shifting momentum and made a raft of changes, bringing on more experienced players like Greig Laidlaw, Josh Strauss and Fraser Brown on to take control of the game.

Some of Eddie Jones’ selections have been questioned in recent years, but in this match it felt like he did not trust his replacements to be able to change the game until he had no choice but to give them a shot. For such an experienced and talented coach, in this match he was thoroughly outplayed by Gregor Townsend. If England are to avoid these second half collapses, Jones needs to have a think about the players he is selecting on the bench and how they can be used.

Shoulder Boy

There were hearts in mouths for England fans in the second half as referee Paul Williams went to the TMO to look at a late challenge by Owen Farrell on Darcy Graham. Graham had kicked on and Farrell appeared to be trying to close him down but ended up clattering into him late, but the replays also showed that Farrell did not use his arms at all in the challenge.

The incident reminded me a lot of Samu Kerevi’s hit on Leigh Halfpenny during the Autumn Tests in that neither of them seemed to make much of a legitimate attempt to charge down the kick and instead took out the kicker after the ball was gone. What I found really interesting is that Paul Williams decided to punish Farrell for the late hit but did not take into account the use of a shoulder rather than the arms as he felt that Farrell was protecting himself rather than trying to make a tackle. While I can understand where he is coming from, this seems like an odd decision to me considering tackles are generally judged on their outcome rather then the players intent. For me, this was a yellow card incident and should have probably cost England the game.

This is the 3rd incident including a no-arms tackle by Owen Farrell in the last 10 Tests. Whether you agree with the decisions or not, Farrell’s uncompromising defence is such a big part of what makes him the great fly half that he is. He just needs to be a bit more careful with using his arms or one of these days a tackle could prove costly.

Eyes On: Ireland v England – 6 Nations 2019

Ireland kicked off their Six Nations campaign at home to England on Saturday, but it’s safe to say things didn’t go as planned for them. England came flying out the blocks and went ahead within 2 minutes through Jonny May, while tries from Cian Healy and Elliot Daly left the halftime score at 10-17. A second half brace from Henry Slade confirmed England’s victory, while Ireland got a late consolation through John Cooney for a final score of 20-32.

Welcome returns

It was great seeing Billy Vunipola and Manu Tuilagi back in the starting XV for England this weekend and for me, it was one of the key reasons for their success. Often in recent matches, England have found themselves lacking the big ball carriers, which has often limited their attacking options. However having these two big names back, along with Mako Vunipola and Kyle Sinckler in the front row, gave the team a number of options when looking for the hard metres and this gave the attack a new edge where they could be attacking the Irish in a number of different ways.

Further than this, the added impetus from a couple of big names returning after so long could draw a big performance from the players around them, as happened in this game. Everyone stepped up in this match and did everything they could to deny the Irish even a foothold in the game. Johnny Sexton, Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose were quickly closed down every time they got the ball and it gave the players outside them very little decent ball to attack with.

Watching this game, I found the performance reminiscent of the win over New Zealand in 2012 under Stuart Lancaster. After a poor 2018, are things once again on an upwards trajectory for England?

Sorely missed

Though I wouldn’t say that his presence would have given Ireland victory, I really think Rob Kearney was missed this weekend. When it was suggested that Robbie Henshaw could start at 15 in the days leading up to Joe Schmidt’s team announcement, I scoffed at the idea considering how long it has been since he frequently played the position. I understood that with Kearney having just 1 appearance for Leinster under his belt since his return from injury meant he was unlikely to play, but I thought that we would see his deputy at Leinster, Jordan Larmour given the 15 shirt given his recent experience in the role.

Henshaw played a decent game, but he was put under heavy pressure which is exactly what you don’t want when playing in a position that you’re not 100% comfortable in. England continually had him running around his 22 trying to get to their kicks, which often found him finally getting the ball in a corner, close to his line, with a wall of white stopping him doing anything.

I can’t help wonder if Kearney’s presence would have helped as he is so good at getting himself in position ahead of time, it may have allowed him to deal with the England kicking game better. I think Kearney’s ability under the high ball would have been utilised too, as Elliot Daly was not tested in this area anywhere near as much as I expected given his performances in the Autumn Tests.

With a trip to Scotland (who will likely be fielding 2 recognised fullbacks in Stuart Hogg and Blair Kinghorn again) next weekend, it will be interesting to see if Henshaw keeps his place in the 15 shirt.

Unused

With just a couple of minutes left, and the game won, Eddie Jones brought on George Ford, Ellis Genge and Luke Cowan-Dickie from the bench. Now first off, I don’t understand why these changes were made with just a couple of minutes left as I doubt the players they replaced all got inured at the same point, but there was no time for them to have any impact on the match or really gain anything from the experience. And if he was just looking to give the players a cap, then why was Dan Robson left on the bench?

Gregor Townsend did something very similar in bringing on Adam Hastings with just a few minutes left, but besides getting players an extra cap, I don’t see what benefit it has for anyone!

Eyes On: 2018 Rugby Championship – Round 6

The 2018 Rugby Championship came to a close in Round 6 with a reverse of the Round 4 fixtures. If Round 4 will be remembered as the week of upsets, Round 6 will go down as the week of stunning comebacks as champions New Zealand scored 2 converted tries in the final 5 minutes to beat South Africa, while Australia overturned a 31-7 halftime deficit in Argentina to win 34-45, clawing themselves into third place in the standings at the Pumas’ expense.

South Africa 30-32 New Zealand

At 30-18 with just 10 minutes left, South Africa looked set to do an incredible double over the All Blacks. At the final whistle, they were left shell-shocked, trying to figure out how they were on the losing side. I would argue that things started going wrong for them slightly earlier in the match, just after the hour mark. From this point, the Springboks made the following changes:

60′ Vincent Koch for Frans Malherbe

63′ RG Snyman for Eben Etzebeth

66′ Damian Willemse for Willie le Roux

70′ Sikhumbuzo Notshe for Francois Louw

73′ Embrose Papier for Faf de Klerk, Mbongeni Mbonami for Malcolm Marx

74′ Tendai Mtawarira for Steven Kitshoff

78′ Elton Jantjies for Damian de Allende

Now I think some of these substitutions, especially the removal of de Allende and le Roux, were due to injury rather than tactical reasons, but that is a lot of experience leaving the pitch in the final 20 minutes – a time when New Zealand are know to be at their most dangerous. Koch is a quality replacement but has been away from international rugby for years, while Jantjies lacks the same physicality of de Allende. But the sheer quality and – probably even more importantly – the experience of the players coming off the pitch was always going to make things difficult for the Springboks. De Klerk and Marx had been arguably 2 of the best players on the pitch, so if they were able to continue, they should have remained on til the very end. It’s important to build experience and strength in depth, but the chance to beat the All Blacks (twice in a handful of weeks!) should have been too good to turn down. Hopefully moving forwards, Rassie Erasmus will be a bit more careful with his substitutions in big games.

It feels crazy to say when talking about New Zealand, but their midfield struggled on Saturday. Much like the week before, Sonny Bill Williams and Ryan Crotty failed to consistently create a threat in attack and Beauden Barrett also struggled. The back 3 of Ioane, Naholo and Smith were arguably wasted for the first 50 minutes. However, once Richie Mo’unga came on for Waisake Naholo (with Ben Smith moving to the wing and Barrett to fullback), the back line suddenly looked more dangerous and the All Blacks’ fortunes improved. I wonder if Steve Hansen has inadvertently found a new way to set up his squad, making up for the lack of creativity provided by this centre pairing by playing a 10/15 hybrid like Damian McKenzie or one of the Barretts at 15, but using Ben Smith as a more reliable option with more attacking midfield pairings. With the quality of players available and the versatility of many of the New Zealand backs, Hansen will have so many options at his disposal when he comes to creating his match-day 23s, even when he has a more limited number of players in the squad come the World Cup.

Argentina 34-45 Australia

Momentum is a cruel thing in professional sports, just ask the Pumas. They could not have had a much better start, Pablo Matera crossing for a try within 2 minutes on the way to a 14-0 lead by the 5 minute mark. Despite a try from Michael Hooper, the momentum was clearly with Argentina, who went into halftime 31-7 up despite having lost Nicolas Sanchez to injury during the half. However, their momentum stalled at halftime and the Wallabies got an early try through Izack Rodda, while Israel Folau and Dane Haylett-Petty also crossed in quick succession. The momentum was now firmly against the Pumas who could only muster a single penalty in the second half to the Wallabies’ 38. Argentina had 68% possession and 68% territory in the first half, but were limited to 35% possession and 33% territory after the break.

A bit like the Springboks’ final 10 minutes, I think Argentina struggled with a lack of leadership when it was so desperately needed. Agustin Creevy is not the superstar he used to be anymore and I would argue that the Pumas would benefit from swapping him and Julian Montoya around, as Montoya has recently appeared more reliable at set pieces while bringing Creevy on against tired defences could get the best out of him while also bringing a highly experienced leader onto the pitch later in the game. Perhaps even more importantly, they need to get their European-based leaders back in the fold, sooner rather than later!

Full credit to the Wallabies for a stunning comeback, but I do not think that this should save Michael Cheika’s job. I’m not one to enjoy seeing coaches lose their job, but despite a strong team, the results have been poor and the first half performance at the weekend was an embarrassment! They have never been lower in the world rankings and should consider themselves extremely lucky not to finish bottom of the table in this Rugby Championship. It may not be ideal switching coaches especially just a year out from the World Cup, but they have just under 3 weeks until Bledisloe 3 (where there would be no pressure on them, having a new coach and being 2-0 down) followed by Autumn Internationals against Wales, Italy and England… there will be no better time before the World Cup. It will be interesting to see how the ARU act…

Eyes on the Ball

Thoughts from the world of sport and the Schmoedown

Tag: Substitutions