RWC2019: Predicting the Fiji Squad

With the Pro14, Top 14 and Premiership all over for another season, thoughts are turning towards the World Cup and who represent their countries in Japan. A few weeks back, Fiji head coach John McKee selected his training squad to prepare for the tournament, starting with the Pacific Nations Cup.

Having had the chance to look at the training squad and some of Fiji’s other recent squads, I chose to make them my next squad prediction. This was without a doubt my hardest so far, as I realised that while I recognised a lot of names in some positions (especially the back line) there were other positions like the front row where I initially recognised just 2 names! To be clear, this is not a matter of picking the 31 I would take, but rather who I think John McKee will take, so I have tried to avoid any biases I have towards any specific players.

Journey to RWC2019 series:

So without further ado, I think that Fiji will select…

Prop

Fiji selected 4 props in 2011 (when squads were only 30 men) and 5 in 2015. As they selected 6 props in the most recent Autumn Internationals, I have decided to go for the average number: 5. Campese Ma’afu and Manasa Saulo have recently been the starters in the bigger matches so became my first selections here, with Eroni Mawi and Kalivati Tawake backing them up. My 5ᵗʰ and final prop selected is Peni Ravai, who also gives some additional cover at hooker.

Hooker

Despite the selection of Ravai, I still expect 3 specialist hookers to be selected. Sam Matavesi and Mesulame Dolokoto are the main two here judging by recent matches. Perhaps this is one time that I have picked with heart over head, but I think that Sunia Koto will take the final hooker position and appear at his 4ᵗʰ World Cup.

Second Row

Leone Nakarawa is one of the best locks in the game so will clearly be selected. Tevita Cavubati and Api Ratuniyarawa have also been regulars in the 23 over the last year so will bake the list, with Albert Tuisue taking the 4ᵗʰ and final second row spot.

Back Row

Viliame Mata has had a starring role with Edinburgh and has also been a regular starter in Fiji’s recent big matches so will surely travel, along with other regulars Dominiko Waqaniburotu and Peceli Yato. Semi Kunatani ended the season strongly at Harlequins so makes the list and the final back row spot goes to Nemani Nagusa who will make the squad despite Newcastle’s poor season.

Scrum Half

Scrum half is one of the positions where I think John McKee and I think very differently. Personally, I would select Nikola Matawalu as one of 3 scrum halves due to his experience with Glasgow and his ability to also play on the wing. However he has not played for the Flying Fijians since November 2017 and I doubt that will change this close to the tournament. For that reason, I believe McKee will go for just 2 specialist scrum halves, in the form of Frank Lomani and Henri Senioli.

Fly Half

Finn Russell’s backup at Racing 92, Ben Volavala is the clear pick here, while Alivereti Veitokani has been his favoured replacement in recent Test windows in part de to Josh Matavesi’s injuries, so will go as the second fly half.

Centre

Centre was a position I found very interesting to pick due to the options available. Semi Radradra has emerged as one of the stars since converting from league, while Jale Vatubua has also been a regular in recent matches so will keep his space in the squad. Levani Botia is a wrecking ball and makes the squad even without his ability to also cover back row, while I also pick Vereniki Goneva as a 13 who can also cover wing rather than specifically as a winger.

Back 3

This leaves 6 spots on the plane for players in the back 3 and boy was it hard to narrow down, even with the retirement of Nemani Nadolo. Filipo Nakosi is (at time of writing) still uncapped but has been in try-scoring form for Toulon so will surely make the squad, alongside more regular starters Metuisela Talebula, Setareki Tuicuvu and Josua Tuisova. Kini Murimurivalu brings experience to the back 3 and Eroni Sau takes the final spot for me as he may be lacking caps at this level but has a wealth of experience from his time with Fiji 7s.

So those are my picks for Fiji’s 31-man World Cup squad, who do you think makes the list?

Challenge Cup 2019/20 Pools Overview

The pools for the 2019/20 Challenge Cup were announced on Wednesday and now teams can begin to plan for their campaigns. 20 teams are split into 5 pools, with each team playing the other 3 in their pool at home and away. Once the 6 rounds of pool matches are over, the pool winners and 3 best runners-up qualifying for the knock-out stages.

While the impact of the Rugby World Cup can’t be fully predicted yet, and the order of the fixtures currently remains unknown, predictions can be made over how each pool will play out as the teams aim to make it to the final in Marseille and a victory that could help them qualify for next year’s Champions Cup.

Pool 1

Castres, Worcester, Dragons, Enisei-STM

Let’s be honest, this looks like an easy group for Castres. Worcester will likely be fighting against relegation from the Premiership, the Dragons seem to struggle every year and Enisei are always going to struggle to compete in the competition until they get to play weekly against high-level opposition. If Worcester do choose to put in the effort with this competition, they do have the chance of winning home and away against Dragons and Enisei, which could give them a shot of a best runner-up spot.

Pool 2

Scarlets, Toulon, London Irish, Bayonne

If we don’t see 2 teams from this pool qualify for the knockouts, then I’ll be shocked! Bayonne and Irish are both here by virtue of being promoted into the Top 14 and Premiership respectively, so will likely focus on consolidating their league position. The Scarlets had a poor season but if they can get their squad back in fighting shape with no adverse effects from the World Cup, then I think they have every chance of topping the group given Toulon are losing a number of influential players. If Irish’s new stars can quickly gel and they put some effort into qualifying for the knockouts, then I think they have every chance of pushing Toulon down to 3^rd.

Pool 3

Wasps, Edinburgh, Bordeaux, Agen

Given the strength of the Top 14, I can’t see Bordeaux or Agen putting too much stake in this competition given they both finished in the bottom 5 last season. Wasps has a poor season and have lost some stars this summer, but they have also brought in some quality replacements and will also have Jimmy Gopperth back from injury, while Lima Sopoaga will hopefully do better this year with a season of playing in the Premiership under his belt. Meanwhile, I expect further success from Edinburgh, provided the aftermath of the World Cup does not impact them too much. If these 2 play in the final week, it would not surprise me if the winner takes the pool.

Pool 4

Stade Francais, Bristol, Zebre, Brive

Like Bayonne, I don’t expect Brive to put any real focus into this competition as they will be looking to stay in the Top 14 following their recent promotion from Pro D2. Zebre showed some promise last season in the Pro 14, but I worry that they may struggle in the aftermath of the World Cup. Bristol and Stade Francais look the clear favourites in this group and if either of them can beat the other away from home, then I would expect to see them finish top.

Pool 5

Cardiff Blues, Leicester, Pau, Calvisano

Leicester had a torrid season but expect to see them improve this year and challenge for at least a best runner-up spot. Calvisano are a great example of the success Italy are beginning to have since Conor O’Shea came in to sort everything from the bottom up, but I think they will be lucky to get anything other than potential bonus points in this pool. Cardiff are on the up and have signed some dangerous wingers, but Gareth Anscombe will be a loss and they need to hope that Jarrod Evans continues to grow as he has been if they want to progress. Pau look to be the strongest in this pool, especially with Ben Smith, Luke Witelock and Dominiko Waqaniburotu joining, but I don’t expect Leicester and Cardiff to make it easy for them.

So, putting my neck on the line, I think the 8 semi-finalists will be:

Pool winners: Castres, Scarlets, Wasps, Stade Francais, Pau

Best runners-up: Edinburgh, Bristol, Toulon

Who do you think will make the knockouts? If you enjoyed this, you can also find my thoughts on the Champions Cup pools here.

Champions Cup 2019/20 Pools Overview

The pools for the 2019/20 Champions Cup were announced on Wednesday and now teams can begin to plan for their campaigns. 20 teams are split into 5 pools, with each team playing the other 3 in their pool at home and away. Once the 6 rounds of pool matches are over, the pool winners and 3 best runners-up qualifying for the knock-out stages.

Pool 1

Leinster, Lyon, Northampton, Benetton

Last season, Leinster had the challenge of emerging from a group that also contained soon-to-be Top 14 Champions Toulouse and did it with aplomb, qualifying with 5 wins and 25 points. This season it appears that things will be far simpler as I can’t imagine any teams here will be able to seriously compete against them over the pool stages, while their strength in depth means that they can also likely survive the impact of players returning from World Cup duty. Benetton did a great job to qualify on merit with the new qualification set-up, but I think that they will see qualification for the knockouts as a step too far this year, though I could see them potentially winning home matches against Lyon and Northampton. I’m not sure if either Northampton or Lyon will be able to separate themselves sufficiently enough to earn a best runner-up spot, but if one of them can win all 3 home games and at Benetton, they are putting themselves in a strong position.

Pool 2

Exeter, Glasgow, La Rochelle, Sale

Could this finally be the year that Exeter finally start living up to expectations in Europe? To me, there is a big drop off after the first 2 teams and I think that the matches between Exeter and Glasgow will decide the pool, while the loser has every chance of a best runner-up spot. That said, Sale and La Rochelle are not easy away matches and having to travel to one or both of them before they are mathematically eliminated could be a serious banana skin.

Pool 3

Clermont, Ulster, Harlequins, Bath

Clermont look the overwhelming favourites in this pool, but Ulster showed last year that they are a dangerous team and another season’s experience makes me confident that they can win their home games and pull off at least 1 victory away from home. Harlequins showed some good stuff in 2018/19, but I think that they may struggle to balance competing in the Premiership and this competition. Meanwhile Bath are an unknown prospect having moved on from Todd Blackadder as Director of Rugby, but I struggle to envision a club with a rookie DoR being competitive in this pool.

Pool 4

Saracens, Munster, Racing 92, Ospreys

Poor Ospreys! Wales’ only representative this season qualified by beating the Scarlets in a playoff, but it is hard to imagine them emerging with more than 2 home victories (and even that may be optimistic) from what is arguably the pool of death. It’s hard to imagine any of the other 3 losing away from home, but this could very much come down to how each team deals with the impact of the World Cup. Despite that, Sarries still have incredible depth and I expect them to come out with a victory, and Ospreys could prove crucial in determining who earns a best runner-up spot as a win at the Liberty Stadium will likely be a key component in separating Munster and Racing.

Pool 5

Toulouse, Gloucester, Connacht, Montpellier

Understandably the group that I was paying closest attention to during the announcement as it involved my beloved Gloucester Rugby. Toulouse will be the clear favourites in the group, but if they face Gloucester soon after the World Cup, then I think the Cherry & Whites have every chance of picking up a crucial win. I expect Toulouse to still earn to spot, but if Gloucester can win all their home games, I think that they can win in Ireland and if Montpellier is their final game, then a Gloucester victory is very possible if Montpellier are already out, which I think could be likely as I don’t think they will travel as well to Connacht.

So, putting my neck on the line, I think the 8 semi-finalists will be:

Pool winners: Leinster, Glasgow, Clermont, Saracens, Toulouse

Best runners-up: Exeter, Ulster, Munster

Who do you think will make the knockouts?

Man Down: What next for Froome and Ineos?

Last weekend, Chris Froome was preparing to take part in his 7^th Critérium du Dauphiné with a view to being ready to challenge for a record-equalling 5^th Tour de France title. Now, he finds himself recovering in hospital, after a high speed crash on a practice run left him with a fractured right femur, broken hip, fractured neck, fractured elbow and fractured ribs.

Such a serious set of injuries will not be a quick recovery and estimates of the time he will be out are starting at 6 months. So the question becomes: What next?

Team Ineos

cycling geraint thomas no1 — Geraint Thomas will now surely be Ineos’ team leader as he goes for back-to-back Tour de France victories

I start with Ineos as they are the ones who have more immediate thoughts, with the Tour kicking off on July 6^th, they knew immediately that there was no way their team leader would be taking any part following his crash. Luckily, if any team can lose their team leader less than a month out from a Grand Tour and still expect to emerge with the winner, it’s Ineos. Last year’s race showed just how strong they were, with Geraint Thomas winning the race and young Colombian Egan Bernal starring in the mountains. Bernal was in fact meant to be the team leader at this year’s Giro, only to miss his opportunity due to injury. While Froome may have been option A, Ineos’ option B and option C would be option As in pretty much any other team.

Slightly longer term, Bernal’s injury also gave a chance for young riders Tao Geoghegan Hart and Pavel Sivakov to experience leading a team. While they may not quite be at the same level as some of the other team leaders around them, they also went with a relatively young team to the Giro, and a more experienced line-up (including other top domestiques like Vasil Kiriyenka, Michal Kwiatkowski, Luke Rowe and Wout Poels) could give them every chance of competing. Sky have plenty of strength and while Froome is a loss, they can overcome this and may even look back at this as a great opportunity to give some of the next generation of stars more experience.

Chris Froome

As for Froome, recovery is the only thing that’s important right now. I’m no medical expert, but if he is back riding in 6 months then I’ll be shocked. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if, given his previous accomplishments (he has 6 Grand Tour Victories to his name, potentially soon to be 7 after Juan José Cobo was stripped of his 2011 Vuelta a España title after being found guilty of doping), he made the decision to retire from racing, which would be a shame for him to go out in such a disappointing way.

If he does come back, will he be able to get back to his best? He will be 35 by the time next season’s Grand Tours come around, an age above which not many riders have won a Grand Tour, especially the Tour de France. If he does return to competing, then I think it far more likely that he is frequently used as a super-domestique for another team leaders and an option B or C in the Grand Tours. He rode as a domestique in the recent Tour de Yorkshire and marshalling the team to help Chris Lawless take the team’s first race victory under the new sponsors. With a number of Ineos’ top domestiques aging, this may be the perfect role for Froome to fill and help the next generation for a couple more years.

Whatever happens in Froome’s future though will likely depend on the success and speed of his recovery. Fingers crossed he has a successful recovery and we get to see him riding for another Tour de France title again in the future.

RWC2019: Predicting the Ireland Squad

With the Pro14 and Premiership over for another season, thoughts are turning towards the World Cup and who represent their countries in Japan. The final days of May saw Joe Schmidt announce a 44-man training squad to prepare for the tournament.

This will be Joe Schmidt’s last Ireland squad selection as he has announced that he will be leaving his role as head coach after the tournament. This time last year, Ireland were on fire following a Six Nations Grand Slam and were about to go to Australia for a series victory. However, a number of stars under-performed in this year’s Six Nations and suddenly they look a lot more beatable.

Having had the chance to look at the training squad and some of Ireland’s other recent squads, I chose to pick the Irish for my next squad prediction. To be clear, this is not a matter of picking the 31 I would take, but rather who I think Joe Schmidt will take, so I have tried to avoid any biases I have towards any specific players.

Journey to RWC2019 series:

So without further ado, I think that Ireland’s 31-man squad will be…

Prop

No shock here if you have read my other squad predictions, but I am expecting Ireland to travel with 5 props. Cian Healy and Tadhg Furlong are 2 of the best props in the world at this point and are almost certainly going to be the starters. Jack McGrath is a top-quality replacement at loosehead and though he has had some injury issues this year, I fully expect him to still make it onto the plane providing he proves his fitness, though I expect a 3ʳᵈ loosehead to travel as an insurance policy in the form of Dave Kilcoyne. As for the second tighthead spot, I expect that to go to Andrew Porter, who was the regular replacement for Furlong in the Six Nations.